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For Parents/Guardians: View and simulate your student’s Predictive Chances

Cristina Hernandez Updated by Cristina Hernandez

Scattergrams offer valuable insights, but they are limited by the data available from your high school, which may not always be comprehensive.

Predictive Chances go beyond GPA and test scores, analyzing data from thousands of similar profiles while considering factors like first-generation status, location, race/ethnicity, and in-state vs. out-of-state trends. This helps you guide students in making informed decisions on where and when to apply. Plus, you can see how adjustments in GPA or test scores could impact their chances.

☝️ Remember, while these estimates help understand potential acceptance, they don’t guarantee admission.

Can’t find Predictive Chances? It might be because your account isn’t linked to your student and the school yet, or your high school may not share this data. Double-check your account link and reach out to your school to see if this data is available.

Access Predictive Chances

You’ll spot Predictive Chances alongside Scattergrams throughout Scoir whenever you see this while searching for colleges on behalf of a student. Let’s walk through how to view Predictive Chances on a student’s college list:

  1. Go to the student’s profile and select Colleges & Applications > My Colleges from the left menu.
  2. If your student has added colleges to their list, click on any college tile to open the College Detail Panel.  If you’re in the table view, simply hover over the college name and select Preview to view the panel.
  3. In the College Detail Panel, go to the Admission Intelligence section and find the Predictive Chances table.

The Predictive Chances table helps you understand how likely your student is to be accepted into a college for different application rounds. Each row shows the application round, the corresponding deadline, the estimated chance of admission (or odds of a positive outcome), and the corresponding acceptance likelihood—a label indicating the college's selectivity for the student.

Above the table, you’ll see an overall chance—Overall Chances are a calculation of the individual round chances. Without a round, they're not a prediction of the students' acceptance into that college, but serve as a general classification of the college's competitiveness for that student.

To view Predictive Chances on Scoir, your student needs to have their GPA and standardized test scores included in their profile.

If a student has PSAT or NMSQT scores and a GPA in the system, but no SAT or ACT scores, Scoir AI will use the available data to assess the student's academic profile and calculate predictive chances.

Keep in mind: Predictive Chances won’t show up for colleges with Open Admission. Also, if it's the college's first time offering a specific admission round or if Scoir doesn't have enough historical data, you might not see predictions for those colleges.

Simulate your student’s academic profile

Simulated GPA and test scores will not be saved to the student’s profile.
  1. In the main navigation bar, click My Colleges.
  2. Click a college tile to open the College Detail Panel. If you're in the table view of My Colleges, hover over the college name and click Preview to access the panel.
  3. In the Admission Intelligence section of the College Detail Panel, locate Simulate Profile just below the Predictive Chances table. Click Open to access the simulation controls.
Parent view of profile simulation tools
  1. The controls will start with your GPA and test scores if they're available.

  1. Enable controls and adjust values to see updates in the predictive chances table.
Turning off SAT and ACT does not simulate a Test-Optional policy. Instead, it asks the model to predict the student's chances without factoring in a test score.
  1. Click Reset to profile to revert to the student’s actual GPA or test scores.

Frequently asked questions

How does Scoir derive Predictive Chances?
Scoir has created machine-learning models for a large percentage of colleges based on de-identified historical application records created on Scoir or imported into Scoir as part of the high school onboarding process.

These de-identified records contain a variety of details about each applicant, their school, the round they apply to and the outcomes. When returning Predictive Chances for a student, the model considers details about that student, comparing outcomes for similar students within similar high schools and presents personalized Predictive Chances for each application round currently offered by that college.
Do Predictive Chances consider the outcomes of my student's school?
Yes, the models also take into account the outcomes of other schools on Scoir, especially those with characteristics similar to your student's school.
Do Predictive Chances consider just the GPA and standardized test scores?
No, Scoir’s models use a broad approach that goes beyond academic factors like GPA and test scores. The models also take into account characteristics such as first-generation status, geographic location, race/ethnicity, sex, and high school profile, ensuring a more comprehensive prediction.
Do Predictive Chances consider the student’s location?
Yes, student and college location are factors included in the models. As a result, the personalized Predictive Chances consider the outcome trends of the student's state for each given college. Therefore, the models are able to identify trends specific to States, including whether residing In-State or Out-of-State plays a role in admissions decisions.
Do Predictive Chances consider individual factors like course selection, rigor, test-optional, or extracurricular activities?
Not yet.
What’s the difference between Predictive Chances and Scattergram?
While they’re both outputs of historical outcomes data, Predictive Chances leverages millions of records to offer predicted chances of acceptance based on the outcomes of students with similar profiles. Scattergrams plot only the individual high school’s application outcomes.

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