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For Counselors: Using Predictive Chances

Cristina Hernandez Updated by Cristina Hernandez

Scattergrams offer valuable insights, but they are limited by the data available from your high school, which may not always be comprehensive.

Predictive Chances go beyond GPA and test scores, analyzing data from thousands of similar profiles while considering factors like first-generation status, location, race/ethnicity, and in-state vs. out-of-state trends. It offers round-level and personalized predictions for each college, helping students decide where and when to apply. Plus, it shows how changes in GPA or test scores could affect their chances.

Viewing Predictive Chances

You’ll spot Predictive Chances alongside Scattergrams throughout Scoir whenever you see this while searching for colleges on behalf of a student. Let’s walk through how to view Predictive Chances on a student’s college list:

Students and parents will see Predictive Chances in Scoir only if permitted by the school.
  1. Go to the student’s profile and select Colleges & Applications > My Colleges from the left menu. Or, click their score in the List Score column on the student roster to access their My Colleges page directly.
  2. Click on a college tile to open the College Detail Panel. If you’re in the table view, hover over the college name and select Preview to open the same panel.
  1. Within the Admission Intelligence section of the panel, locate the Predictive Chances table.

Each table row shows the application round, the corresponding deadline, the estimated chance of admission (aka the odds of a positive outcome) and the corresponding acceptance likelihood.

Above the table, you’ll see an overall chance—Overall Chances are a calculation of the individual round chances. Without a round, they're not a prediction of the students' acceptance into that college, but serve as a general classification of the college's competitiveness for that student. Most importantly, it offers some transparency in how the acceptance likelihood was calculated, based on the ranges set in your school settings.

Predictive Chances are generated by a multi-dimensional predictive models. The more complete the student’s profile, the more accurate the results. Our models requires at least a GPA or Standardized test score but will continue to prompt for more details to inform more accurate predictions.

If a student has PSAT or NMSQT scores and a GPA in the system, but no SAT or ACT scores, the models will use the available data to assess the student's academic profile and calculate predictive chances.

Predictive Chances will not be displayed for colleges with Open Admission. Additionally, predictions may not be available if it’s the college’s first time offering a particular round of admission or if Scoir lacks sufficient historical data.

Simulate changes to a student's GPA or test scores

Simulated GPA and test scores will not be saved to the student profile
  1. Navigate to the student’s profile by selecting Colleges & Applications > My Colleges from the left menu. Alternatively, you can go directly to their My Colleges page by clicking the student’s score in the List Score column from the student roster.
  2. Click on a college tile to open the College Detail Panel. If you’re in the table view, simply hover over the college name and select Preview to view the panel.
  3. In the Admission Intelligence section of the College Detail Panel, locate Simulate Profile just below the Predictive Chances table. Click Open to access the simulation controls.
  1. The sliders will be set to the student’s GPA and test scores, provided these details are entered in the student profile.
  1. Enable controls and adjust values to see updates in the predictive chances table.
Turning off SAT and ACT does not simulate a Test-Optional policy. Instead, it asks the model to predict Aaron’s chances without factoring in a test score.
  1. Click Reset to profile to revert back to the student's actual GPA or test score.

Additional resources

Got questions? Visit our Scoir AI FAQ for answers to common questions.

Looking for tips? Explore our Scoir AI Playbook for helpful tips and best practices.

How did we do?

For Counselors: College Selectivity Levels & Student Match Levels overview

For Counselors: Guide to Acceptance Likelihood and Intelligent Match

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