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For Counselors: A guide to Predictive Chances with Scoir AI

Cristina Hernandez Updated by Cristina Hernandez

Navigating the college admissions process can be challenging, but Predictive Chances is here to help. This powerful Scoir AI tool estimates a student’s probability of being accepted to a college, giving counselors valuable insights to support students as they make informed decisions.

This guide will walk you through how Predictive Chances work, how to access them, and how to use them effectively to support students in their college application journey.

So, What Exactly Are Predictive Chances?

Think of Predictive Chances as estimated probabilities of being accepted to a college. Scoir looks at millions of past, de-identified applications from students with similar backgrounds and academic profiles, considering things like:

  • GPA and test scores
  • Whether they're a first-generation college student
  • In-state vs. out-of-state status
  • And more!

How Does it All Work?

Scoir AI leverages machine learning models to analyze data and provide you with a probability. It's important to remember these are probabilities, not guarantees. 

A 60% chance means that historically, about 60 out of 100 students with similar academic and demographic profiles were admitted. Likewise, a 20% chance means 20 out of 100 were accepted, and so on.

The tool breaks down these chances by application round (Early Decision, Early Action, Regular Decision, etc.), so you can help students figure out the best strategy.

How Does This Help You?

With Predictive Chances, you can:

✅ Help students set realistic expectations: Show them where they stand in the admissions process!

✅ Build a balanced college list: Guide them to choose a mix of "reach," "level," and "likely" schools.

✅ Strategize applications: Figure out if applying early could give them a boost.

✅ Show the impact of improvement: Use the simulation tools to demonstrate how better grades or test scores can increase their chances.

Getting the Most Accurate Predictions

To make sure Predictive Chances are as accurate as possible:

1. Fill out student profiles completely. The more info, the better! We strongly encourage you to fully fill out the Personal Details and Academic Overview sections to ensure more accurate and comprehensive predictions.

You need at least a GPA or test score for predictions to work. If missing, you’ll be prompted to add it to the student’s profile. If SAT/ACT scores aren’t available, PSAT/NMSQT scores will be used instead.

2. Keep track of outcomes. Record test scores, GPA, and application outcomes in Scoir, and use Hooks to include additional qualitative data for better alignment with your school's historical admissions trends.

3. Adjust your school settings. Scoir lets you customize Predictive Chances settings to fit your school's specific needs.

Predictive Chances are not available for open-admission colleges, and may be unavailable for colleges offering a particular application round for the first time or those with limited historical data.

Where Do You Find Predictive Chances?

You’ll spot Predictive Chances alongside Scattergrams throughout Scoir whenever you see this while searching for colleges on behalf of a student. Let’s walk through how to view Predictive Chances on a student’s college list:

 Students and parents only see Predictive Chances if your school allows it.

To view a student's predictive chances for a college:

  1. Click their score in the List Score column on the student roster to open their college list. Or, go to their profile and select Colleges & Applications > My Colleges from the left menu (the GIF below shows both options.)
  2. Click on a college tile to open the College Detail Panel. If you’re in the table view, hover over the college name and select Preview to open the same panel.
  3. Look for the Predictive Chances table in the "Admission Intelligence" section.

The table shows several key details for each application round:

  • Round type
  • Deadline
  • Estimated chance of admission
  • Acceptance likelihood

The overall chance, calculated from these round-specific chances, indicates the college's competitiveness for the student and reflects how the acceptance likelihoods are determined by the ranges set in your school settings.

Playing "What If?" with the Simulation Tool

Want to show a student how improving their grades or scores could help in getting accepted to a college? Use the simulation tools! (Don’t worry, it won’t actually change a student’s profile data.)

  1. Go to the Student's College List: Find the student's profile. Click on Colleges & Applications, then My Colleges on the left menu. You can also click their score on the student roster.
  2. Choose a College for Simulation: To explore how changes in scores might impact a student's admission chances at a particular college, click on that college's tile. This will open the College Detail Panel for that college. If you are viewing the colleges in table format, instead hover over the college's name and then click the Preview button that appears to open the same panel
  3. Find "Simulate Profile": In the "Admission Intelligence" section, under the "Predictive Chances" table, click  Open next to Simulate Profile.
  4. View Initial Settings: Sliders for GPA and test scores will show the student's current data (if entered in Scoir)
  5. Adjust and Observe: Move the sliders to change GPA/test scores and watch the "Predictive Chances" table update.
  6. Reset if Needed: Click Reset to profile to go back to the original data.
Turning off SAT and ACT does not simulate a Test-Optional policy.

View Predictions in the "My Colleges" Table

For a quick comparison of chances across multiple schools, check out the table layout in "My Colleges." You can customize the columns to show:

  • Overall Chances
  • Selected Round Chances (show the student’s chances of admission for the specific application round they applied or are applying to)
  • Predictive Chances for each application round (Regular Decision, Early Decision, etc.)

This is super helpful for seeing, at a glance, how different application strategies might play out. For example, you might see that Early Decision is a huge advantage at one school but doesn’t make much of a difference at another.

Example: A counselor might add columns for Early Decision, Early Action, and Regular Decision chances. They can then compare and advise the student on the optimal strategy for each college.

Need More Help?

How did we do?

For Counselors: College Selectivity Levels & Student Match Levels overview

For Counselors: Guide to Acceptance Likelihood and Intelligent Match

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